Vulnerability assessment due to salinity intrusion in Koyra, Khulna, Bangladesh: a multi-dimensional analysis of environmental and socio-economic factors

Abstract

Koyra upazila in Khulna, located in the southwestern region of Bangladesh, is facing an escalating vulnerability to salinity intrusion due to climate change-induced sea-level rise and other environmental stressors. This research aimed to assess the multi-dimensional vulnerabilities of Koyra to salinity intrusion by developing an index and later suggest future adaptation strategies. The study employed a comprehensive methodology integrating thorough data collection and robust analysis with a mixed method approach. Scientific data have been utilized to analyse the physical and environmental characteristics of the area, while different surveys were done to gather information on primary socio-economic vulnerabilities which was further validated. A total of 47 indicators related to social, economic, physical, institutional, health, gender, agriculture and environmental aspects were identified and then sorted into vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Statistical tools and triangulation methods have been used to analyze the data and then with the IPCC and UNDRR framework, a qualitative vulnerability index was developed through which 04 major aspects were categorized into high, moderate, and low vulnerability levels. The study showed that environmental exposure is excessively high and over 50% of the residents reported a significant increase in salinity over the past decade which is reflected on the health sensitivity. Almost 80% people reported recurring occurrences of waterborne diseases while at the same time over 60% residents reported the healthcare facilities are quite poor. The agricultural sensitivity is high- over 90% of farmers reported notable loss in crop yield and profit. Around 45% provided positive feedback on salt-tolerant seeds. Early warning access is rather high with 80% of people revealed getting frequent warnings. Many farmers have resorted to alternative livelihoods and crop diversification. Yet over 60% of the population feel financially insatiable and the recovery rate is slow. Disaster frequency and duration in Koyra is utterly high and institutions to fight this are in doubt of efficacy which is shown when only 15% of the residents reported local government to be thoughtful of community needs. There is a high dependency ratio within families but high social cohesion among neighbours. All the data determined that the overall vulnerability in Koyra is high to very high. Based on the findings, 03 adaptation strategies were pointed out which are moulded to address the context-specific vulnerabilities in Koyra and these are community owned rainwater harvesting, upscaling and maintaining of supply chain of government subsidized salt-tolerant seeds and facilitating SME loans to women to promote alternative livelihoods and training, skill development and knowledge building.