Journal Articles (2020)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10361/16536

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Prevalence of and Factors Associated with Insufficient Physical Activity Among Adolescents: Evidence from the National Nutrition Surveillance Study
(Oxford Academic, 5/29/2020) Hossain, Md Mokbul; Shamim, Abu Ahmed; Hasan, Mehedi; Hanif, Abu Abdullah Mohammad; Hossaine, Moyazzam; Ullah, Mohammad Aman; Sarker, Samir Kanti; Rahman, S M Mustafizur; Mitra, Dipak Kumar; Haque, Md Emdadul; Mridha, Malay; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Objectives: The World Health Organization (WHO) set a target of 15% relative reduction of the prevalence of insufficient physical activity (IPA) by 2025 among adolescents and adults globally. In Bangladesh, there is no national estimates of the prevalence of IPA among adolescents. In the recently completed round of the national nutrition surveillance (NNS 2018–2019), we aimed to estimate the prevalence and risk factors associated with IPA among adolescent girls and boys. Methods: NNS was conducted in 57 rural, 15 urban and 10 slum clusters selected using multistage cluster sampling. In these clusters, we collected data from 4732 adolescent girls and 4761 adolescent boys. We used Global Physical Activity Questionnaire to collect physical activity (PA) data. The WHO recommended cut off points for IPA (5–17 years: <300 minutes of moderate to vigorous-intensity PA weekly; 18–19 years: <150 minutes of moderate intensity PA weekly or <75 minutes of vigorous-intensity PA weekly) were used to estimate the prevalence of IPA. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression were performed to identify factors associated with IPA. Results: Prevalence of IPA among girls and boys were 50.6% and 29.4%, respectively and the prevalence was significantly higher among early adolescents (10–14 years) than late adolescents in both boys and girls. The IPA prevalence was the highest among the adolescents living in non-slum urban areas (girls: 77.9% and boys: 64.6%). The IPA prevalence in slum areas was 36.6% for girls and 34.0% for boys; and in rural areas was 50.0% for girls and 28.2% for boys. For both girls and boys, age group, occupation and >6 hours of sitting per day were associated with IPA. Place of residence, consumption of fruits and vegetables, education and paternal occupation were associated with IPA only among the boys. On the other hand, maternal and paternal education and overweight/obesity were associated with IPA only among the girls. Conclusions: One in every two adolescent girls and one in every three adolescent boys do not meet the WHO recommended level of PA in Bangladesh. This study identified several modifiable factors associated with IPA among adolescent boys and girls and these factors should be addressed through comprehensive public health interventions in order to improve adolescent health in Bangladesh.
Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17
(Elsevier, 2020-08) Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6519000 children (95% UI 5 254000–7733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, withincountry geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52230 diarrhoeal deaths (36910–68860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers’ understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage.
Documenting the challenges of conducting research on sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) of persons with disabilities in a lowand-middle income country setting: Lessons from Bangladesh
(BMJ Journals, 12/17/2020) Amin, Amina; Das, Adity Shayontony; Kaiser, Adrita; Azmi, Raia; Rashid, Sabina Faiz; Hasan, Md Tanvir; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Research has shown that persons with disabilities require greater sexual and reproductive health (SRH) care and services than persons without disabilities. However, this need is often neglected in most of the low-and-middleincome countries including Bangladesh. There is also a dearth of research and data relevant to this issue. A nationwide mixed-methods research has been conducted to explore persons with disabilities’ specific sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) needs, health seeking behaviour related to SRH and barriers in accessing SRH services, along with the associated factors that influence their SRH outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the challenges encountered by the researchers while conducting this research and the strategies adopted to resolve those challenges. Some of the challenges experienced by the researchers include development of appropriate tools with questions on sensitive SRHR topics, obtaining informed consent, difficulty to maintain privacy while exploring sensitive SRHR issues and communication difficulties when interviewing individuals with intellectual and sensory impairments. The mitigation strategies include iterative revisions of all tools based on multiple pretests in different filed sites and expert feedback, strategic rapport building and maintaining appropriate contextual etiquette while conducting the interviews. The reflections discussed in this paper will assist future researchers in understanding potential field challenges they might encounter in similar low resource settings while conducting research on SRHR and similar sensitive issues among marginalised population groups, such as persons with disabilities.
Noncommunicable disease risk factors among adolescent boys and girls in Bangladesh: Evidence from a National survey
(Osong public health and research perspectives, 12/11/2020) Urmy, Nushrat Jahan; Hossain, Md. Mokbul; Shamim, Abu Ahmed; Khan, Md. Showkat Ali; Hanif, Abu Abdullah Mohammad; Hasan, Mehedi; Akter, Fahmida; Mitra, Dipak Kumar; Hossaine, Moyazzam; Ullah, Mohammad Aman; Sarker, Samir Kanti; Rahman, SM Mustafizur; Bulbul, Md. Mofijul Islam; Mridha, Malay Kanti; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Objectives: To assess the prevalence of noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors and the factors associated with the coexistence of multiple risk factors (≥ 2 risk factors) among adolescent boys and girls in Bangladesh. Methods: Data on selected NCD risk factors collected from face to face interviews of 4,907 boys and 4,865 girls in the national Nutrition Surveillance round 2018-2019, was used. Descriptive analysis and multivariable logistic regression were performed. Results: The prevalence of insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, inadequate physical activity, tobacco use, and being overweight/obese was 90.72%, 29.03%, 4.57%, and 6.04%, respectively among boys; and 94.32%, 50.33%, 0.43%, and 8.03%, respectively among girls. Multiple risk factors were present among 34.87% of boys and 51.74% of girls. Younger age (p < 0.001), non-slum urban (p < 0.001) and slum residence (p < 0.001), higher paternal education (p = 0.001), and depression (p < 0.001) were associated with the coexistence of multiple risk factors in both boys and girls. Additionally, higher maternal education (p < 0.001) and richest wealth quintile (p = 0.023) were associated with the coexistence of multiple risk factors in girls. Conclusion: The government should integrate specific services into the existing health and non-health programs which are aimed at reducing the burden of NCD risk factors.
Challenges and strategies in conducting sexual and reproductive health research among Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh
(BMC, 12/14/2020) Ahmed, Rushdia; Aktar, Bachera; Farnaz, Nadia; Ray, Pushpita; Awal, Abdul; Hassan, Raafat; Bin Shafique, Sharid; Hasan, Md Tanvir; Quayyum, Zahidul; Jafarovna, Mohira Babaeva; Kobeissi, Loulou Hassan; El Tahir, Khalid; Chawla, Balwinder Singh; Rashid, Sabina Faiz; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Background: Rohingya diaspora or Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs), took shelter in the refugee camps of Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh due to armed conflict in the Rakhine state of Myanmar. In such humanitarian crises, delivering sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services is critical for better health outcomes of this most-at-risk population where more than half are adolescent girls and women. This is a reflective paper on challenges and related mitigation strategies to conduct SRH research among FDMNs. The research on which this paper is based employed a concurrent mixedmethod design combining a cross-sectional survey and qualitative interviews and group discussions with FDMNs to understand their SRH needs and demand-side barriers. Assessment of health facilities and qualitative interviews with healthcare providers and key stakeholders were carried out to assess facility readiness and supply-side barriers. Challenges and strategies: The researchers faced different challenges while conducting this study due to the unique characteristics of the FDMN population and the location of the refugee camps. The three key challenges researchers encountered include: sensitivity regarding SRH in the FDMNs, identifying appropriate sampling strategies, and community trust issues. The key approaches to overcome these challenges involved: actively engaging community members and gatekeepers in the data collection process to access respondents, identifying sensitive SRH issues through survey and exploring in-depth during qualitative interviews; and contextually modifying the sampling strategy. Conclusion: Contextual adaptation of research methods and involving community and local key stakeholders in data collection are the key lessons learnt from this study. Another important lesson was researchers’ identity and positionality as a member of the host country may create distrust and suspicion among the refugees. The multi-level complexities of humanitarian settings may introduce unforeseen challenges and interrupt research plans at different stages of research which require timely and contextual adaptations.
Targeting anticorruption interventions at the front line: Developmental governance in health systems
(BMJ Journals, 12/3/2020) Hutchinson, Eleanor; Naher, Nahitun; Roy, Pallavi; McKee, Martin; Mayhew, Susannah H; Ahmed, Syed Masud; Balabanova, Dina; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
In 2008, Vian reported an increasing interest in understanding how corruption affects healthcare outcomes and asked what could be done to combat corruption in the health sector. Eleven years later, corruption is seen as a heterogeneous mix of activity, extensive and expensive in terms of loss of productivity, increasing inequity and costs, but with few examples of programmes that have successfully tackled corruption in low-income or middleincome countries. The commitment, by multilateral organisations and many governments to the Sustainable Development Goals and Universal Health Coverage has renewed an interest to find ways to tackle corruption within health systems. These efforts must, however, begin with a critical assessment of the existing theoretical models and approaches that have underpinned action in the health sector in the past and an assessment of the potential of innovations from anticorruption work developed in sectors other than health. To that end, this paper maps the key debates and theoretical frameworks that have dominated research on corruption in health. It examines their limitations, the blind spots that they create in terms of the questions asked, and the capacity for research to take account of contextual factors that drive practice. It draws on new work from heterodox economics which seeks to target anticorruption interventions at practices that have high impact and which are politically and economically feasible to address. We consider how such approaches can be adopted into health systems and what new questions need to be addressed by researchers to support the development of sustainable solutions to corruption. We present a short case study from Bangladesh to show how such an approach reveals new perspectives on actors and drivers of corruption practice. We conclude by considering the most important areas for research and policy.
Do social accountability approaches work? A review of the literature from selected low- and middle-income countries in the WHO South-East Asia region
(Oxford Academic, 11/9/2020) Naher, Nahitun; Balabanova, Dina; Hutchinson, Eleanor; Marten, Robert; Hoque, Roksana; Tune, Samiun Nazrin Bente Kamal; Islam, Bushra Zarin; Ahmed, Syed Masud; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Governance failures undermine efforts to achieve universal health coverage and improve health in low- and middle-income countries by decreasing efficiency and equity. Punitive measures to improve governance are largely ineffective. Social accountability strategies are perceived to enhance transparency and accountability through bottom-up approaches, but their effectiveness has not been explored comprehensively in the health systems of low- and middle-income countries in south and Southeast Asia where these strategies have been promoted. We conducted a narrative literature review to explore innovative social accountability approaches in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Indonesia, the Maldives, Myanmar and Nepal spanning the period 2007–August 2017, searching PubMed, Scopus and Google Scholar. To augment this, we also performed additional PubMed and Google Scholar searches (September 2017–December 2019) to identify recent papers, resulting in 38 documents (24 peer-reviewed articles and 14 grey sources), which we reviewed. Findings were analysed using framework analysis and categorized into three major themes: transparency/governance (eight), accountability (11) and community participation (five) papers. The majority of the reviewed approaches were implemented in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. The interventions differed on context (geographical to social), range (boarder reform to specific approaches), actors (public to private) and levels (community-specific to system level). The initiatives were associated with a variety of positive outcomes (e.g. improved monitoring, resource mobilization, service provision plus as a bridge between the engaged community and the health system), yet the evidence is inconclusive as to the extent that these influence health outcomes and access to health care. The review shows that there is no common blueprint which makes accountability mechanisms viable and effective; the effectiveness of these initiatives depended largely on context, capacity, information, spectrum of actor involvement, independence from power agendas and leadership. Major challenges that undermined effective implementation include lack of capacity, poor commitment and design and insufficient community participation.
Status of the WHO recommended timing and frequency of antenatal care visits in Northern Bangladesh
(PLOS ONE, 11/5/2020) Sarker, Bidhan Krishna; Rahman, Musfikur; Rahman, Tanjina; Rahman, Tawhidur; Khalil, Jubaida Jahan; Hasan, Mehedi; Rahman, Fariya; Ahmed, Anisuddin; Mitra, Dipak Kumar; Mridha, Malay Kanti; Rahman, Anisur; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Objective: There is dearth of information on the timeliness of antenatal care (ANC) uptake. This study aimed to determine the timely ANC uptake by a medically trained provider (MTP) as per the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations and the country guideline. Methods Cross-sectional survey was done with 2,731 women having livebirth outcome in last one year in Dinajpur, Nilphamari and Rajshahi districts, Bangladesh from August-November,2016. Results About 82%(2,232) women received at least one ANC from a MTP. Overall, 78%(2,142) women received 4 or more ANCs by any provider and 43%(1168) from a MTP. Only 14%(378) women received their first ANC at the 1st trimester by a MTP. As per 4 schedule visits by the WHO FANC model and the country guideline 8%(203) and 20%(543) women respectively received the first 2 timely ANC by a MTP; where only 1%(32) and 3%(72) received the first 3 visits timely and 0.6%(17) and 1%(29) received all the four timely visits. Factors significantly associated with the first two timely visits are: 10 or above years of schooling of women [adj. OR 2.13 (CI: 1.05, 4.30)] and their husbands [adj. OR 2.40 (CI: 1.31, 4.38)], women’s employment [adj. OR 2.32 (CI: 1.43, 3.76)], urban residential status [adj. OR 3.49 (CI: 2.46, 4.95)] and exposure to mass media [adj. OR 1.58 (CI: 1.07, 2.34)] at 95% confidence interval. According to the 2016 WHO ANC model, only 1.5%(40) women could comply with the first two ANC contacts timely by a MTP and no one could comply with all the timely 8 contacts. Conclusion Despite high coverage of ANC utilization, timely ANC visit is low as per both the WHO recommendations and the country guideline. For better understanding, further studies on the timeliness of ANC coverage are required to design feasible intervention for improving maternal and child health.
Prevalence and associated factors of underweight, overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age group in the Maldives: Evidence from a nationally representative study
(PLOS ONE, 10/29/2020) Hashan, Mohammad Rashidul; Rabbi, Md Fazla; Haider, Shams Shabab; Gupta, Rajat Das; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Background: Global epidemiological transition across various countries have documented the coexistence of undernutrition and overnutrition. South Asian countries are facing this public health hazard in remarkable manner. To enrich the evidence and relation with women’s health in the Maldives, this study was undertaken to examine the prevalence and associated factors of underweight, overweight and obesity among reproductive age women. Methods This study was conducted utilizing data from the Maldives Demographic and Health Survey 2016–17. After presenting descriptive analyses, multivariable logistic regression analysis method was used to examine the prevalence and associations between different nutritional status categories. These were grouped based on the WHO recommended cut-off value and relevant socio-demographic determinants among reproductive age women. Results A total weighted sample of 6,634 reproductive age Maldivian women (15–49 years) were included in the analysis. The overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was 63%, while the underweight prevalence was 10%. The younger age group (15–24 years) had a higher prevalence of underweight (26%). On the other hand, an overweight and obesity prevalence of 82.6% was observed among the older age group (35–49 years). Regression analysis showed that residents of the North and Central Provinces, those in the higher quintiles of wealth index, married women and those with parity of more than two children, were all significantly negatively correlated to being underweight. Increased age, being married or separated/divorced/widowed and having more than three children was found to have a significant positive association with overweight and obesity. Conclusions Maldives is facing nutritional transition and a major public health hazard demonstrated by the high burden of overweight and obesity and persistence of chronic problem of undernutrition. Surveillance of vulnerable individuals with identified socio-demographic factors and cost-effective interventions are highly recommended to address the persistent underweight status and the emerging problem of overweight/obesity.
Should we care: A qualitative exploration of the factors that influence the decision of early marriage among young men in urban slums of Bangladesh
(BMJ Journals, 10/26/2020) Biswas, Subas Chandra; Karim, Shuchi; Rashid, Sabina Faiz; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Objectives To explore how adolescent and young men negotiate the complex realities of lives to explain their pathways into and reasons for early marriage in urban slums of Bangladesh. Design The qualitative data used here came from a larger 3-year study that used both quantitative and qualitative research methods. Setting Interviews were conducted in two of the largest slums in Dhaka and Chittagong city of Bangladesh between December 2015 and March 2018. Participants This paper uses qualitative data from 22 indepth interviews (IDIs) and three focus group discussions (FGDs) with adolescent and young men aged 15–24 years; 13 IDIs and 4 FGDs with parents and 11 key-informant interviews with community leaders. The purposively selected respondents were interviewed in their respective settings. Results In the context of urban slums, this study revealed multiple factors influence early marriage decision-making processes among young men. These factors include socially perceived phenomenon of adulthood and readiness of marriage, poverty leading to drop out from schools and early initiation to earning livelihood, manifestations of increasing individual aspiration and agency, fulfilment of romance and erotic desires and dreams of forming one’s own family. In addition, parental and immediate societal interference to preserve norms around gender and society can act as catalysts for this decision. Conclusions Study findings imply that complex structural factors, social and gender norms that are contributing to the early marriage for both adolescent boys and young men in Bangladesh’s urban slums. These are locations where conservatism, poverty and urbanisation intersect resulting in early and often unprepared entry to adulthood for young men impacting on their development and wellbeing. It is, therefore, critical that young men should be included in the national and global conversations around child marriage and child marriage prevention programme.
Developing core economic parameter sets for asthma studies: A realist review and an analytical framework
(BMJ Journals, 10/20/2020) Roukas, Chris; Quayyum, Zahidul; Patel, Anita; Fitzsimmons, Deborah; Phillips, Ceri; Hounsome, Natalia; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Objective: To develop a standardised set of economic parameters (core economic parameter set) for economic evaluations in asthma studies. Design A systematic literature review and an analytical framework. Outcome measures Economic parameters used to evaluate costs and cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions for people with asthma. Data sources PubMed, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and the Health Technology Aaaessment Library starting from 1990. Review methods Research methods were based on the realist review methodology and included a number of nonsequential, iterative and overlapping components, such as developing an analytical framework for the realist review; systematic literature review of economic parameters; identifying and categorising economic parameters; producing preliminary list of core economic parameters. Results Database searches found 2531 publications of which 224 were included in the systematic review. We identified 65 economic parameters that were categorised into 11 groups to enable the realist synthesis. Parameters related to secondary care, primary care, medication use, emergency care and work productivity comprised 84% of all economic parameters. An analytical framework was used to investigate the rationale behind the choices of economic parameters in these studies. The main framework domains included type of intervention, research population, study design, study setting and a stakeholder’s perspective. Conclusion Past research thus suggests that in asthma study parameters depicting the use of secondary care, primary care, medication, emergency care and work productivity can be considered as core economic parameters, since they apply to different types of studies. Parameters including diagnostics, healthcare delivery, school activity, informal care, medical devices and health utility apply to a particular type of study (or research question), and thus can be recommended as supplemental parameters.
Mothers’ education and the effectiveness of nutrition programmes: Evidence from a matched cross-sectional study in rural Bangladesh
(Taylor & Francis, 10/14/2020) de Hoop, Thomas; Fallon, Shelby; Yunus, Fakir Md; Munrat, Sabeth; Jolly, Saira Parveen; Sehrin, Farzana; Aktar, Bachera; A Ghani, Ruhina Binta; Sennett, Joshua
BRAC Bangladesh trains community health workers to communicate about nutrition in its Maternal, Newborn and Child Health programme. We estimate the programme’s impact on nutrition outcomes among rural Bangladeshi children of two years and younger. We find positive effects on dietary diversity, and show that the programme reduces stunting with 7 percentage points using data from 1600 households in 40 beneficiary mouzas and 40 comparison mouzas. We find larger effects for households where primary caregivers have finished primary school. We did not find effects on wasting, which in contrast to stunting is higher among children with primary caregivers without education.
Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier, 10/17/2020) GBD 2019 Viewpoint Collaborators; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.
Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier, 10/17/2020) GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older.
Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: A comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier, 10/17/2020) GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Summary: Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed agespecific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier, 10/17/2020) GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Summary: Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.
Availability of equipment and medications for non-communicable diseases and injuries at public first-referral level hospitals: A cross-sectional analysis of service provision assessments in eight low-income countries
(BMJ Journals, 10/10/2020) Gupta, Neil; Coates, Matthew M; Bekele, Abebe; Dupuy, Roodney; Fénelon, Darius Leopold; Gage, Anna D; Getachew, Theodros; Karmacharya, Biraj Man; Kwan, Gene F; Lulebo, Aimée M; Masiye, Jones K; Mayige, Mary Theodory; Mbaye, Maïmouna Ndour; Mridha, Malay Kanti; Park, Paul H; Dagnaw, Wubaye Walelgne; Wroe, Emily B; Bukhman, Gene; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Context and objectives: Non-communicable diseases and injuries (NCDIs) comprise a large share of mortality and morbidity in low-income countries (LICs), many of which occur earlier in life and with greater severity than in higher income settings. Our objective was to assess availability of essential equipment and medications required for a broad range of acute and chronic NCDI conditions. Design: Secondary analysis of existing cross-sectional survey data. Setting: We used data from Service Provision Assessment surveys in Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Malawi, Nepal, Senegal and Tanzania, focusing on public first-referral level hospitals in each country. Outcome measures: We defined sets of equipment and medications required for diagnosis and management of four acute and nine chronic NCDI conditions and determined availability of these items at the health facilities. Results: Overall, 797 hospitals were included. Medication and equipment availability was highest for acute epilepsy (country estimates ranging from 40% to 95%) and stage 1-2 hypertension (28%-83%). Availability was low for type 1 diabetes (1%-70%), type 2 diabetes (3%-57%), asthma (0%-7%) and acute presentations of diabetes (0%-26%) and asthma (0%-4%). Few hospitals had equipment or medications for heart failure (0%-32%), rheumatic heart disease (0%-23%), hypertensive emergencies (0%-64%) or acute minor surgical conditions (0%-5%). Data for chronic pain were limited to only two countries. Availability of essential medications and equipment was lower than previous facility-reported service availability. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate low availability of essential equipment and medications for diverse NCDIs at first-referral level hospitals in eight LICs. There is a need for decentralisation and integration of NCDI services in existing care platforms and improved assessment and monitoring to fully achieve universal health coverage.
How has early marriage, a critical social determinant of child stunting and wasting, changed over a decade in South Asia? trends, inequities and drivers, 2005 to 2018
(Oxford Academic, 5/29/2020) Scott, Samuel; Nguyen, Phuong; Neupane, Sumanta; Pramanik, Priyanjana; Nanda, Priya; Menon, Purnima; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Afsana, Kaosar; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Objectives: In South Asia, many women are married before their 18th birthday and give birth soon after. Delaying marriage is an attractive nutrition policy target as previous research shows that early marriage (EM) is associated with poor child growth outcomes, operating through many pathways. We sought to describe the prevalence, trends, inequities and predictors of EM in South Asia. Methods We used Demographic and Health Survey data available in the last 15 years for 7 South Asian countries: Afghanistan (AF; 2015), Bangladesh (BG; 2007, 2014), India (IN; 2006, 2016), Maldives (MV; 2009, 2017), Nepal (NP; 2005, 2016), and Pakistan (PK; 2007, 2018). EM was defined as the percentage of women aged 20–24 years who were married before 18 years of age. Our analyses included 133,680 women. The prevalence and absolute burden in terms of number of individuals affected were estimated for each survey round. Relative trends were examined using average annual rate of reduction (AARR). Inequities were examined by geography, wealth, place of residence, and education. Regression decomposition was used to examine the contribution of improvements in wealth and education to EM reductions. Results The most recent rounds of data show that EM is common in BG (69%), AF (52%), NP (52%), IN (41%), and PK (37%) but not MV (4%). IN accounts for 68% of the regional burden, with 21.9 million women married early in 2016. The fastest reductions in EM have occurred in IN (59% to 41% over 10 years, an AARR of −3.8% per year), PK (−2.8% per year), and BG (−1.5% per year). EM prevalence varies subnationally, e.g., from 5% to 52% for states within IN in 2016. Equity analysis shows that EM disproportionately burdens women who are poor, uneducated, and live in rural areas. Progress in narrowing these inequalities has been slow in the past decade. When examining predictors of EM, completion of secondary school was associated with a 20% (PK) to 36% (NP) lower EM prevalence. Decomposition analysis shows that improvements in wealth and education alone predicted between 46% (PK) and 96% (NP) of the actual EM reduction. Conclusions EM remains highly prevalent in South Asia and trends indicate an enduring problem. The nutrition community should invest in building linkages with researchers and practitioners to further understand and address this important social determinant of poor child growth.
Why are adolescent mothers more likely to have stunted and underweight children than adult mothers? A path analysis using data from 30,000 Bangladeshi mothers, 1996–2014
(Oxford Academic, 5/29/2020) Nguyen, Phuong; Scott, Samuel; Khuong, Long; Pramanik, Priyanjana; Ahmed, Akhter; Afsana, Kaosar; Menon, Purnima; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Objectives: Adolescent pregnancy is a major global concern due to its adverse effects on maternal and child health and wellbeing. Bangladesh has one of the highest rates of adolescent pregnancy globally. We sought to examine trends in adolescent pregnancy and associated factors in Bangladesh in the last two decades, and to understand why children of adolescent mothers are at high risk of poor growth. Methods Data were from 6 rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (1996–2014). Women aged 15–49 years who gave birth in the 5 years preceding each survey (n = 30,331) were classified based on age at first birth: ≤19 years (adolescence), 20–24 years (young adulthood), and ≥25 years (adulthood). Trend analysis was used to assess the progress over time. Multivariable regression and structural equation models were used to understand how adolescent pregnancy is linked to child undernutrition through maternal nutritional status, education and bargaining power, health service use, child feeding and living conditions. Results Adolescent pregnancy has declined slowly, from 84% in 1996 to 73% in 2014. Children born to adolescent mothers had lower z-scores for height-for-age (mean difference: −0·64 SD), weight-for-age (−0·45 SD), and higher prevalence of stunting (18 percentage points [pp]) and underweight (12pp) than children born to adult mothers. Compared to adult mothers, adolescent mothers were shorter (−0·8 cm), lighter (−6.9 kg), more likely to be underweight (+14pp), had lower education (−4·3 years), less decision-making power (−9pp), and lived in poorer households (−0·79 SD) with poorer sanitation (−23pp) (all P < 0.05). Adolescent mothers were less likely to access ANC (−20pp), institutional delivery (−42pp), postnatal care services (−24pp) and had poorer complementary feeding practices (−15pp). In path analyses, these intermediate factors explained 66% of the association between adolescent pregnancy and child anthropometry, with the strongest links being through women's weight, education, socioeconomic status and complementary feeding practices. Conclusions Adolescent pregnancy is still the norm in Bangladesh. Policies and programs to address poverty and improve women's education can help to improve women's health, reduce early childbearing and break the intergenerational cycle of poverty and undernutrition.
Economic evaluation of culprit lesion only PCI vs. immediate multivessel PCI in acute myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock: the CULPRIT‑SHOCK trial
(Springer Link, 10/7/2020) Robles‑Zurita, Jose Antonio; Briggs, Andrew; Rana, Dikshyanta; Quayyum, Zahidul; Oldroyd, Keith G.; Zeymer, Uwe; Desch, Stefen; de Waha‑Thiele, Suzanne; Thiele, Holger; BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health
Background The CULPRIT-SHOCK trial compared two treatment strategies for patients with acute myocardial infarction and multivessel coronary artery disease complicated by cardiogenic shock: (a) culprit vessel only percutaneous coronary intervention (CO-PCI), with additional staged revascularisation if indicated, and (b) immediate multivessel PCI (MV-PCI). Methods A German societal and national health service perspective was considered for three diferent analyses. The cost utility analysis (CUA) estimated costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) based on a pre-trial decision analytic model taking a lifelong time horizon. In addition, a within trial CUA estimated QALYs and costs for 1 year. Finally, the cost efectiveness analysis (CEA) used the composite primary outcome, mortality and renal failure at 30-day follow-up, and the within trial costs. Econometric and survival analysis on the trial data was used for the estimation of the model parameters. Subgroup analysis was performed following an economic protocol. Results The lifelong CUA showed an incremental cost efectiveness ratio (ICER), CO-PCI vs. MV-PCI, of €7010 per QALY and a probability of CO-PCI being the most cost-efective strategy>64% at a €30,000 threshold. The ICER for the within trial CUA was €14,600 and the incremental cost per case of death/renal failure avoided at 30-day follow-up was €9010. Cost-efectiveness improved with patient age and for those without diabetes. Conclusions The estimates of cost-efectiveness for CO-PCI vs. MV-PCI have been shown to change depending on the time horizon and type of economic evaluation performed. The results favoured a long-term horizon analysis for avoiding underestimation of QALY gains from the CO-PCI arm.

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