Effects of unemployment on marriage in the United States (1990-2019)

Abstract

The existing body of research indicates a pro-cyclical relationship between marriage and business cycle fluctuations. Building upon Schaller's (2012) investigation, this paper delves into whether this relationship persists, examining the responsiveness of the female marriage rate to economic conditions with a particular emphasis on the influence of women's level of education. To ensure the robustness of the results, this research incorporates demographic factors to examine how race and ethnicity may influence the relationship between the unemployment rate and family formation. The key insight derived from the analysis reveals that while unemployment exerts a negative influence on the overall marriage rate and the marriage rate of less educated women, it has no significant influence on the marriage rate of college-educated women.