Enhanced drought analysis in Bangladesh: A machine learning approach for severity classification using satellite data

Abstract

Drought poses a pervasive environmental challenge in Bangladesh, impacting agriculture, socio-economic stability, and food security due to its unique geographic and anthropogenic vulnerabilities. Traditional drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), often overlook crucial factors like soil moisture and temperature, limiting their resolution. Moreover, current machine learning models applied to drought prediction have been underexplored in the context of Bangladesh, lacking a comprehensive integration of satellite data across multiple districts. To address these gaps, we propose a satellite data-driven machine learning framework to classify drought across 38 districts of Bangladesh. Using unsupervised algorithms like K-means and Bayesian Gaussian Mixture for clustering, followed by classification models such as KNN, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Naive Bayes, the framework integrates weather data (humidity, soil moisture, temperature) from 2012-2024. This approach successfully classifies drought severity into different levels. However, it shows significant variabilities in drought vulnerabilities across regions which highlights the aptitude of machine learning models in terms of identifying and predicting drought conditions.