A smart grid prerequisite: Survey on electricity demand forecasting models and scope analysis of demand fsorecasting in Bangladesh

Abstract

Electricity supply via smart grid mechanism is gaining importance in many country's priority lists. A detailed study on electricity forecasting is required to ensure a smooth transition to the smart grid. Forecasting is evident to ensure better management of generation plants, supply grids and the transmission system. This article focuses on demand forecasting study as a preparation of smart grid, presents a technical survey/review of several forecasting methods which have been done earlier. This paper also conducts a study highlighting the forecasting scenario, performs scope analysis from developing countries' context and presents analytical results of a short-term forecasting. As a candidate, these have been discussed on the basis of electricity load data of Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh; one of the world's most highly populated city. Electricity distribution has been handled in Dhaka city by two companies, DESCO and DPDC. This article discusses on few average sized DESCO zones of its total 16 and emphasized more on Shah Ali zone. Two selective feature based forecasting methods have been also proposed and results have been shown to support that forecasting will help to see the unseen.