Understanding the unprecedented 2023 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: a data-driven analysis

Abstract

This study aims to elucidate the epidemiological characteristics, spatial distribution, and potential contributing factors associated with the 2022-2023 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed dengue fever cases reported by national health surveillance systems, focusing on incidence, geographical spread, and fatalities. Statistical methods were used to explore correlations between population density, healthcare capacity, and disease prevalence. Results: Our study revealed that in 2023, dengue cases and deaths surged five-fold (from 62,382 to 320,835) and nearly six-fold (from 281 to 1699) compared with 2022. Major cities such as Dhaka and Chittagong emerged as epicenters with significantly higher caseloads and mortality rates. The analysis identified a strong positive correlation between population density and disease prevalence, suggesting urbanization as a contributing factor. In addition, a shift in the peak dengue season from August to September was observed. Furthermore, disparities in health care infrastructure were identified, with densely populated areas experiencing critical shortages of hospital beds, potentially impacting fatality rates. Conclusions: This unprecedented dengue outbreak in Bangladesh highlights the need for a multifaceted approach. Prioritizing vector control, targeted public awareness in identified hotspots, addressing healthcare resource inequities, and further research on environmental and demographic determinants of transmission are crucial for mitigating future outbreaks in Bangladesh.