Temperature sensitivity forecasting of electrical load

Abstract

This paper presents a forecasting technique of the temperature sensitivity of electrical load. Temperature sensitivity of electrical load means the amount of change in load consumption for one degree change in temperature. A linear regression based analysis of temperature sensitivity of Bangladesh power system (BPS) load is performed at first and using the results, temperature sensitivity of BPS load is forecasted by applying three-point method. The linear regression analysis recognizes that the load pattern of BPS is heavily dependent on temperature. This study also shows that, temperature sensitivity of Bangladesh network load varies with the seasonal variation. A significant portion of the electrical energy is consumed in Bangladesh, especially in summer season, to mitigate the impact of weather on the daily life of human society. This temperature sensitivity forecasting will help to incorporate the effect of weather conditions to short-term and mid-term load forecasting. Numerical results of temperature sensitivity of BPS load from the year 2001 to 2009 are presented and finally the forecasted value of the 2010 is also shown.