Mathematical models to explain the export of Bangladesh

Abstract

Export is a very important medium for a Nation to earn foreign currencies and specially for a country like Bangladesh to maintain their economy and GDP (Gross Domestic Product). In Bangladesh economy, a very significant percentage depends on export specially the RMG export holds 62% of total export which is the most successful export item for them. They particularly do high export of RMG to European nation and USA, who have become successful export partners of Bangladesh. It is very important to monitor the Export of Bangladesh and for this, many mathematical models have been used earlier. In continuation, in this research three renowned mathematical models/methods have been applied on the very recent 27 years export data (secondary data) collected from library and website of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and Bangladesh respectively along with the error calculation using RMSE (root mean sum squared error) to choose the best method for explaining the Bangladesh export progress. The three renowned mathematical methods like Geometric method, Least square regression and Exponential method have been used to forecast after calculating the overall growth rate by each method respectively. Finally, Exponential method has been selected as best fitted model of Bangladesh Export among these three which helps to speed up the business decision as time is less consuming to understand the performance of Bangladesh.