The impact of lockdown stringency on employment: a causal analysis of the ICT and contrasting sectors

Abstract

Inspired by the increasing interest in the policy and sectoral dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper aims to study the causal effects of government mandated lockdown policy stringency on the Information and Communication (ICT) sector, including four contrasting sectors which are Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Transport & Storage; Accommodation & Food. This paper employs the Generalized Synthetic Control (GSCM) method to study the effect across a panel of 22 countries from 2010-2023. The results found that lockdown policy measures had a strongly positive effect on employment in the Information and Communication sector with presence of heterogeneous effects in the contrasting sectors. The study finds the results in line with existing literature and the additional analysis of the contrasting sector add to the validity of the positive causal effects in the ICT sector. This thesis includes detailed evaluation of the causes and future policy implications of these effects.