Population dynamics of Bangladesh: a study on key demographic trends and population projection of Bangladesh

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the demographic transition and the impact of these changes in the coming years to provide opportunities for more meaningful policymaking in Bangladesh. It analyzes the components of population structure from three perspectives: historical population trends, current demographic profile and population projection. Data are collected from different secondary sources. Previous trends indicate that the population of Bangladesh has doubled in the period from 1971 to 2011. The growth rate has declined to 1.02% during the same period. The sex composition of Bangladesh is also symmetrical in recent years, the age specific fertility rate indicates higher adolescent fertility rate in the future. The current trend in age structure depicts a large number of people entering the working age group. The trend in the net migration rate continues to rise as employment opportunities in Bangladesh are insufficient and people tend to go abroad to improve their standard of living. Future projections indicate that the population growth rate will be steadily reduced until 2020, after which there will be a sharp decline in the growth rate until 2050. Despite the low rate, the total population will increase and the population is estimated to reach 201 million by the end of 2050. The current structure of the sex age population is pyramid shaped and it will take the view of the barrel shape by 2050. By the end of the projection period, the size and share of the elderly population will increase (60 +). The study also depicts emerging windows of opportunity as well as the challenges faced by Bangladesh. Furthermore, this study also focuses on policy recommendations that can help to meet the expected challenges of the future.